The analysis that estimates Manchester United will not return to the Champions League until 2029

Analysts predict that Manchester United will not return to the Champions League until 2029. While the club's financial outlook shows signs of improvement, its on-field performance continues to lag, raising concerns among fans and investors alike. This assessment comes from UBS, who have downgraded their target share price for the club, reflecting the current state of affairs.

Current Performance: A Cause for Concern

Manchester United's recent form has been a major disappointment. Currently positioned 14th in the Premier League, they are closer to the relegation zone than to European qualification. This stark contrast to their past dominance has led UBS to revise their financial projections.

They now anticipate the team finishing 15th in the current season and only managing a 10th-place finish by 2026. The financial analysts also predict that the club will be eliminated in the round of 16 of the Europa League.

The analysts explain that the only way to increase their short term revenue would be to win the Europa league or the FA cup, but that they have not taken those results into their estimates.

Financial Outlook: Long-Term Gains

Despite the current struggles, UBS sees a positive long-term financial outlook for Manchester United. This optimism is based on the club's plans to increase stadium capacity, which is expected to boost revenue from ticket sales and Old Trafford experiences by £200 million annually. This revenue increase would give the club more financial muscle to compete in the transfer market.

Champions League Return: A Distant Prospect

However, the sporting aspect presents a more pessimistic picture. UBS forecasts that Manchester United will not return to the Champions League until 2029. This projection hinges on the club's ability to significantly improve its on-field performance.

The analysts believe that a return to the Champions League would drive revenue to £800 million, further enhancing the club's financial position. "We see that the revaluation of the shares will be linked to an eventual return to the Champions League, a scenario that could boost revenues to 800 million pounds.

With a revenue base higher than most of its peers and, therefore, with a capacity to spend more money on talent, we assume that the performance will change and lead to participation in the Champions from the season of the fiscal year 2029," the analysts explain in a report.

Market Reaction: Share Price Adjustments

The market has reacted to these projections, with Manchester United's share price currently trading at $14.68. UBS has set a target price of $21.75, representing a potential upside of 48%. However, this target is contingent on the club's ability to improve its sporting performance and secure a return to the Champions League.